Smoking could ‘disappear’ by 2050, says Citigroup

Smoking could "virtually disappear" in Britain within half a century, according to research by Citigroup conducted earlier this year.

The habit has been on the wane since the 1960s, when just over half of adults in Britain smoked. With people becoming more conscious of the health risks associated with smoking and the introduction of the smoking ban in 2007, that figure had dropped to a fifth by 2008.

"The percentage of smokers is declining across the developed world, and the declines are more or less in a straight line in most markets," said analysts.

"If these trends continue, then by 2050, many important tobacco markets will have gone to zero smoking."

But Citigroup stressed that these were "extremely long-term" trends and did not justify any action as yet, adding that pricing increases will continue to drive profit growth for tobacco companies until about 2020.

However, they did point to other more imminent challenges, including the advent of plain packaging.

Andrew Lansley, the Health Secretary, said late last year that the government was considering plans to sell cigarettes in plain packaging in an attempt to deter children from taking up the habit.

Citigroup analysts said that in their view, it would make "surprisingly little difference to smoking rates or profits".

"We don't believe smokers are attracted to smoking by the packs because graphic health warnings already make them look revolting. Furthermore, plenty of drugs are bought without branded packaging," said the broker.

[See also: Tobacco facts: 10 things to know about smoking]

The year smoking will die out around the world: table

British American Tobacco is to buy the second largest cigarette company in Colombia for $452m (£277.7m).

Here, we list the date smoking will die out in 18 different countries from the UK to New Zealand.

The table below illustrates the year the trend hits zero in each of the following nations:

• Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis based on OECD, national data, TMA and JT data