Sun, Feb 26, 2012, 13:13 GMT - UK Markets closed

Why debt crisis could lead to a United States of Europe

At the start of a new week it seems that the markets have come to the conclusion that ditching Berlusconi as leader of Italy isn't going to be the panacea to Europe's sovereign debt crisis that some thought it would be.

Of course it's absurd that the changing of the guard in Athens and Rome would cause a fundamental shift in the situation. These countries may be the founding fathers of democracy and the civilized world; but as they currently stand both Rome and Athens have no democratically-elected heads of state and are reliant on a bunch of technocrats to push through tough austerity and economic reforms to ensure that countries avoid default and that they remain in the euro.

But while unelected governments with a mandate to push through the largest spending cuts for generations comes with its own problems, the markets still seem fairly placated by the prospect of a change of leadership in Europe's two most troubled economies.

This is incredibly significant for the future of the currency bloc. A lot of debate has gone on about the fact that markets have demanded political change in the currency bloc, thus sovereign nations are once again held hostage by market forces that are invariably a force for evil — as portrayed by some sectors of the media, anyway. However, this is the wrong assumption in my view. The markets have no real power to change governments and the prospect of political change has only really impacted the bond market, the euro, for example, has been remarkably unaffected by what is going on in Rome.

The bond market in particular is reacting to Italy and Greece's loss of sovereignty and the peoples' choice to choose their own governments, not because the markets are some sort of fascist force, but because they believe the United States of Europe (as has been touted by some of the world's top economists) is the only way to solve the crisis.

The US, for all of its problems, is considered to be a functioning political entity hence last week, as Italy was in the depths of its own sovereign crisis, Jefferson County in the state of Alabama filed for the largest municipal bankruptcy in the history of the United States with more than $3billion debts.

Jefferson County only has 600,000 residents but ran up massive debts in the last decade after a huge sewerage overhaul system was plagued by over-runs and corruption — not that different from stories out of Greece. However, although this is a large amount of money and threatens the stability of the $3 trillion municipal bond market that helps US states and municipalities finance their spending programmes, because Alabama is ultimately protected by the Federal government, which has its own Treasury and Central Bank to print money, the markets didn't bat an eyelid.

Thus, no one is genuinely concerned that the residents of the state of Alabama have a President who was a one-time Senator of Chicago and has very little association with their state. This is because it is accepted that Alabama is better off being part of a large fiscal and political union than being out on its own.

This is why the best economic heads in the land all converge around the same solution to the debt crisis- fiscal and political union and the ECB as a last resort lender. So if the Eurozone is to stay together the future holds two things: firstly the United States of Europe and secondly, inflation as the ECB tries to monetise the currency bloc's debt.

Even German Chancellor Angela Merkel hinted that this was her ultimate goal during a speech at her annual party conference earlier this week. Firstly she wants closer fiscal union, which will then lead to a deeper political union.

So what would the United States of Europe look like? The first question to ask would be who would be included. This would most likely be all current Eurozone members absent any rogue peripheral states that don't sign up for harsh fiscal austerity in return for continued financial assistance.

At the moment it seems like each member state is willing to toe the (German) line and any that don't will get the cold shoulder as Greece found out after ex-Prime Minister Papandreou announced a referendum on whether or not to accept the latest round of EU bailout terms.

The United States of America had its teething problems at the start, including a civil war some 60 years after the signing of the Constitution. So while Europe's leaders seem to be coming to the conclusion that more not less Europe is the solution to this crisis, the road ahead will be littered with obstacles and the markets are right to be cautious at this stage.

 

579 comments

  • MALCOLM  •  3 months ago
    france and germany will rule us if we are not careful
  • Rog  •  3 months ago
    I might point out that Germany had quite an advantage over Britain and others as I believe they didn't have to pay to rebuild their Country after the war whereas the UK only finished paying off the USA a few years back for money borrowed in the war, please correct me if I'm wrong.
  • Neville S  •  3 months ago
    THE UNITED DEBTS OF EUROPE
    What a joke this whole exercise has turned out to be .They went against every single convention that they drew up to keep this from happening.
    Meanwhile America is holding Germany's GOLD hostage and they don't know how to get delivery of it.So go and suck on that miss merkel the black widow of european economics.
  • planefreak123  •  3 months ago
    Take your choice with this spineless PM Neville Cameron or David Chamberlin. All it needs is to him exit an aircraft with a piece of paper flapping in the air.

    As Simon rightly points out being in the EU as it is (as the EEC was a trading bloc only) is illegal under English Law such as the Bill of Rights and also the Act of Supremacy, check out the wording as these as well as Magna Carta cannot be repealed and also make any treaties with the EU illegal under English law. So DC wants to claw back laws from Brussels, legally they didn't have any right to over rule our own laws as set down in our constitution or impose themselves over English law.

    "I, A.B., do swear that I do from my heart abhor, detest and abjure as impious and heretical this damnable doctrine and position, that princes excommunicated or deprived by the Pope or any authority of the see of Rome may be deposed or murdered by their subjects or any other whatsoever. And I do declare that no foreign prince, person, prelate, state or potentate hath or ought to have any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm. So help me God."

    Bill of Right 1689 (and never repealed)
  • Asitis  •  3 months ago
    I find it so hard to believe that our politicians are party to this. They endeavour to show how educated
    and wordlywise they are but at the end of the day I honestly believe they have not any idea of what they are letting themselves in for or the harm they are doing. i may not be as well educated or articulate as they but I can see the writing on the wall.
  • les  •  3 months ago
    united states of europe, was the ultimate goal of the eu being formed,
    something britian didn't vote for.
    we elected to join a common market. we've all be had by the polaticans
    that Ted Heath as a lot to answer for; as well as his successors
  • ROBERT  •  3 months ago
    Ms Brooks writes some tripe and tries to liken it to the formation of the U.S

    First up we have had two dismal failures the E.E.C and now the Euro.
    The difference here from th U,S being that we are trying to amalgamate DIFFERENT CULTURES.

    History has shown that it takes hundred of years to lay greivances to rest.
    Look at the squabbles between the U.K nations alone; that matter is not even closed yet with Scotland, Wales and Ireland all heading down the devolution route.

    Afraid what we HAD as a UNITED STATES OF EUROPE is as good as it gets.

    Yes we will be members but we are going to do our own thing when it does not suit us just does not work.
  • ralph  •  3 months ago
    No election in Greece and Italy? Central Bank just places a new prime minister. Soon to fail Spain, Portugal? Can France and the rest of Europe be far behind? No wonder Merkel calls this the biggest crisis facing Europe since WW2. The banks are taking over without firing a shot.
  • tim  •  3 months ago
    Without one european language there can be no USE (United States of Europe)
  • Ice  •  3 months ago
    Funny thing is I am usually in support of a one world government so this would be a good stepping stone. However the way the EU is being run i cant help but be very suspicious.
    The NAZIS couldn't conquer Europe with there military strategy, but Germany will rule a united Europe by controlling the fiscal policy. everyone knows in anything whoever controls the money wields the most power and whether its through a system of backroom deals or more visible authority Europe will be under Germany's boot before long.
  • SIMON  •  3 months ago
    Sorry to say this but I dispute fervently that it is any of our interests to have the Eurozone become a USofE. We might just as well have put up our hands to Hitler in WW2if it goes ahead and our dictatorial coalition decide we should play too. It will be an unmitigated disaster for all concerned, not least the ordinary working (or none working man/woman) in Europe, especially when it fails WHICH IT WILL as our nations are so very different to each other unlike the US where the states are all reatively young and are not dissimilar in make up. God help us all!
  • IAN  •  3 months ago
    whatever happens the rich will still be rich and the poor still striving to live and keep the rich rich!!!!!
  • Gallobhaí  •  3 months ago
    Why does everyone commenting think this would be a good thing?! The United States of Europe was never designed to be a democracy rather a 'technocracy of intellectual elite'(Jean Monnet). How democratic are the laws currently imposed on us from Brussels, the referenda we are denied, the blatent disregard for the constitutions of Nation States, the assets of Greece Ireland Spain portugal and now Italy sold off/privatised because of Anglo-Dutch and Franco-German banks gambling their investments on derivatives markets and losing. This is somehow our fault?! The debt won't disappear, only translated into the new USE currency, and there will not be any national politicians standing between us and Brussels negotiating austerity. USE is a road to serfdom for the 'lesser European nation states' such as mine.
  • ham c  •  3 months ago
    This is what the whole EU experiment was all about. It may seem impossible and may indeed be just coincidence but I can't shake the sensation that this was all engineered to bring this about.
    This is a interesting time, it can go one of two ways in my opinion.
    1/ As the eurozone countries actually force through a full united states of europe formation. It will become increasingly impossible for the mainstream parties to still peddle the lie of a working union of independent nations engaged in free trade only. In this instance if we aren't actually cast aside by the newly unified europe as being a millstone holding them back. The public clamour to finaly leave the EU all together will become impossible to ignore here at home.
    2/ The idiots and crooks in parliament actually still try to peddle the lie that even if the rest of europe wants to go for full national union. That we can remain independent but still involved as a sort of sleeping partner to their grand enterprise. That We get to be at the party but don't need to buy a present so to speak. This is our most terrifying prospect because it'll mean any hope we're to have will rest solely in our own hands. Now you may think that a good thing, but this will mean we will have to literally take to the streets and be willing to force the government to listen to us.

    I hope to god the first option plays out, because we can't bury our heads in the sand and hope things work out for the best. If this is indeed the end game, we have to make the same choice the rest of europe is making - are we a part of the united states of europe or are we Great Britain, we can no longer pretend to be both.
  • JOHN  •  3 months ago
    I think it is odd that we cannot understand that other countries should do what is best for themselves even if it sometimes works against our interest. That is the real commercial world that we live in., The problem is that we do not always do the same.
    I have been to Germany several times on business and the differences are amazingly stark. They invest in the latest autometion and staff at the most cost effective levels. We do not normally. They pay fairly high wages for the few employees that they have. We do not always do that. Germany has a very single vision--- we must succeed and continue to flourish politically and finacially.
    The workforces seem by and large to cooperate with the vision. We do not.Then we concerned about them trying to secure thier future against rogue states with the EU who somehow thought that they could get a free meal. There is no such thing.
    We have the brains, grit, inventiveness, capital, commercial no how but somehow we stumble.
    We, all of us including those who invest, have to learn that we can make it, we can achieve through determination and guts. When our backs are to the wall we deliver the goods so should start from here and do not stop until we have a succes to be proud of.
    There is no point in employing our country in non jobs to make them feel comfortable. We cannot afford it.
    Can we please, just decide that we can achieve and get on with it. More manufacturing, produced on time, at the right quality, at the right cost and price and we will succeed.
    Come on we can do it!!!!
  • G  •  3 months ago
    We cannot even fully trust our own politicians and civil servants, so trusting those in Europe would be absolutely unthinkable with the effective ending of true democracy that would result from a German/French centrally controlled fiscal union. Britain therefore has no option but to stand on its own feet and widen its horizons by strengthening ties with the USA and emerging markets, including Russia and China where the real power will be in the future anyway.
  • Jon  •  3 months ago
    @ Florence - ("one world one goverment for the benefit of all mankind one currency.").

    That is spectacularly naive - for one, do you not read the news? the reason we are in so much trouble is that the EZ economies are too diverse to be united under a single currency, over which they exert precious little control.

    That aside - take off the economic blinkers & think about the social & political implication of that statement. What's to say we won't end up with a religious government, rather than a secular one? Take your pick - fundamental evangelicals, ultra-orthodox Jews, or a fundamental Muslim faith, imposed globally by law? Death to equality & freedom? Stone people to death for extra marital transgressions?

    How about a totalitatian Chinese or Russian style government? Wake up - The socio-political / religious ideologies are too wide a gulf to bridge, any attempt at global governence will end in a world war - conform or die.
  • Chad  •  3 months ago
    'fathers of democray' and the 'civilized world' REALLY!!!!!!! LMFAO best joke ive heard in ages
  • william d  •  3 months ago
    Lets have a United planet.....
  • simon  •  3 months ago
    Can any one tell me the difference between the old Soviet Union, an unallected dictatorship, riding roughshod over its people, controlling its neighbouring countries by threat, and the EU.
    These people in charge seem hell bent on completely destroying Britain as a nation. They want to fill the country up with immigrants, destroy any sense of national identity and deny people us democracy. Even if that liar Cameron had allowed a referendum, would the EU allow the result if it went against them? Look what happened in Ireland when they voted no to the Euro. They made them vote again. Merkel and Sarkosy have effectively sacked the prime ministers of two countries and put their own puppets in charge. When is Blair going to be charged with treason for deliberately setting out to change our country to suit his EU paymasters?

Rates and deals