China steel drops again, traders unimpressed by output cuts
* CISA members cut output by 8.35 pct in late-Aug
* Iron ore prices drop again to lowest since Sept 2009
* China rebar, iron ore futures continue plunge
(Updates prices, adds trader quote)
By David Stanway
BEIJING, Sept 5 (Reuters) - China steel and iron ore futures
prices plunged to new lows on Friday and spot prices continued
to plummet, with traders unconvinced by data suggesting large
mills were finally taking action to curb oversupply in the
world's biggest steel market.
China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) figures showed that
large-scale firms slashed daily output by 8.35 percent in late
August, while steel product stockpiles also fell 6.6 percent
over Aug. 21-31.
But the figures did not provide immediate support for the
spot market, with traders in Shanghai reporting rebar prices of
2,810 yuan ($457.6) per tonne, down 20 yuan from Thursday, and
hot-rolled coil prices of 3,260 yuan per tonne, down 30 yuan.
"CISA's steel output figures also fell in the final third of
July and then went up again - we have to wait until early
September before we can be sure that production has really
dropped," said a Beijing-based trader.
The most traded rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange fell 0.5 percent on Friday to another new low
of 2,834 yuan per tonne.
The most active iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity
Exchange dropped 2.8 percent to end at 585 yuan per
tonne, with trade slow ahead of an extended public holiday
weekend.
"We are not expecting any pickup in momentum until
mid-September and (it is) certainly unlikely ahead of Monday's
(mid-Autumn festival) holiday," said Melinda Moore, an analyst
with Standard Bank, in an emailed note.
Steel oversupply has remained the primary concern, and CISA
has been urging its members to take action to curb production.
More obsolete, polluting capacity is also scheduled to close
this month as part of a state campaign.
According to CISA-affiliated consultancy Custeel, total
August steel output is likely to have reached 71.16 million
tonnes, a daily rate of 2.296 million tonnes. Custeel's
estimates are normally higher than official government data.
British steel consultancy MEPS said in a Thursday note that
there were still indications that Chinese steel mills were
underreporting output, and noted that it was difficult for
authorities to make "meaningful decisions" on capacity controls
unless they ensured that output data was reliable.
Benchmark 62 percent iron ore for immediate delivery into
China fell another 1.6 percent on Thursday to
$84.3 per tonne, its lowest point since September 2009. Prices
are down around 4 percent this week and are nearly 39 percent
lower than the same time last year.
Shipments continue to rise, with the world's fourth largest
miner Fortescue Metals Group of Australia announcing on
Thursday that its total August deliveries reached a new high of
15.16 million tonnes carried on a total of 82 vessels, breaking
the previous record of 13.25 million tonnes in June.
The Steel Index said in a note on Thursday that "the
additional tonnes have come at a bad time", with iron ore prices
coming under further pressure in early September as a result of
fresh rumours that domestic steel producers were suspending
operations or even facing bankruptcy.
The latest steel mill said to be at risk has issued a public
statement denying domestic media reports that it had suspended
all operations and begun bankruptcy proceedings.
Xicheng Iron and Steel Group in Jiangsu province said that
some of its machinery had been shut down but only because of
product quality issues. However, it admitted that China's credit
tightening measures had created serious financing difficulties
that it was now working hard to rectify.
CISA vice-chairman Zhang Changfu said in a speech on
Thursday that average debt ratios in the steel sector had
reached almost 70 percent by the end of July. He urged mills not
to rest their hopes on any relaxation of credit restrictions and
to refrain from raising production.
Rebar and iron ore prices at 0700 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct Change
SHFE REBAR JAN5 2834 -15.00 -0.53
DALIAN IRON ORE DCE DCIO JAN5 585 -17.00 -2.82
SGX IRON ORE FUTURES OCT 82.58 -1.38 -1.64
THE STEEL INDEX 62 PCT INDEX 84.3 -1.40 -1.63
METAL BULLETIN INDEX 85.24 -0.85 -0.99
Dalian iron ore and Shanghai rebar in yuan/tonne
Index in dollars/tonne, show close for the previous trading day
(1 US dollar = 6.1413 Chinese yuan)
(Editing by Joseph Radford and Subhranshu Sahu)