Copper supply cuts no consolation for price bulls

* Around half of mines losing money on total cost basis

* Bulk of migration to China cities happened from 2000-2010

* China copper imports vs LME prices: http://tmsnrt.rs/1nMq1Du

* China mfg PMI orders vs copper: http://tmsnrt.rs/1nMqvcL

By Pratima Desai

LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - An expected axing of copper miners' loss-making output this year may put a floor under the price of the metal, but weaker prospects for demand growth in top consumer China should curb any gains.

Producers hoping prices would pick up have for months resisted output cuts. Many that are losing money, however, will likely have to slash production over coming months.

Data from the GFMS team at Thomson Reuters (Dusseldorf: TOC.DU - news) shows around 50 percent of mines are losing money on a total cost basis with copper prices around current levels near $4,600 a tonne.

Some miners including London-listed Glencore (Xetra: A1JAGV - news) , U.S (Other OTC: UBGXF - news) .-based Freeport and Poland's KGHM have already cut.

"In terms of all the price-related cutback and shutdown announcements already made, mainly in the last six months or so, for 2016 we anticipate a loss of 610,000 tonnes of contained copper from mine production," CRU senior consultant Piotr Ortonowski said.

CRU expects copper prices to average around $4,600 a tonne this year.

"We do anticipate additional cutbacks of another 185,000 tonnes this year ... It (Other OTC: ITGL - news) 's a significant number that will help to balance the market, but a lot of loss-making mine capacity remains in operation."

Any cuts will go some way towards offsetting new capacity of almost 1 million tonnes from mine projects expected to start up in the next year or so.

But they are unlikely to be large enough to balance the copper market, which according to a Reuters survey is expected to show a surplus this year of 150,000 tonnes.

The forecast for the average copper price this year at $4,858 a tonne is the lowest since the average of $3,600 in 2005 when the commodities super-cycle was starting, fuelled by China's industrialisation and urbanisation.

The price of the metal used in power and construction fell to $4,318 a tonne in January, the lowest since May 2009. This is less than half the $10,190 hit in 2011, after some estimates put Chinese demand growth in 2010 at around 10 percent.

"These prices are low relative to production costs and will lead to supply adjustments over a long period of time," said Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS-PB - news) analyst Max Layton, who expects copper to fetch $4,500 at the end of this year.

"The risks surrounding that forecast are skewed to the downside because demand and cost deflation may be more bearish than anticipated."

Others agree cuts will be slow to come. Chinese data after the Lunar New Year later this month confirming demand this year is unlikely to be much stronger than last could be a trigger.

Demand growth in 2015 is estimated at only 2 percent in China, which accounts for about half of global consumption estimated at 22 million tonnes.

That is because China's growth focus has moved away from manufacturing and heavy industry towards consumption. As a result, investment in infrastructure, property and manufacturing has fallen.

The belief that urbanisation in China has slowed significantly reinforces expectations of weaker demand growth for copper.

"The bulk of the migration to cities happened from 2000 to 2010," East Capital portfolio manager Francois Perrin said.

"There is a marginal number of people that can physically move to the cities, where the level of inventories in residential and commercial property is sometimes 30 months."

(Reporting by Pratima Desai; Editing by Dale Hudson)