Yahoo Finance Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) After Its First-Quarter Results
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$109m missing analyst predictions by 6.5%. Additionally, the business reported a statutory loss of US$2.03 per share, larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical from 20 analysts is for revenues of US$513.3m in 2024. If met, it would imply a meaningful 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 11% from last year to US$6.60. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$514.7m and losses of US$6.47 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.
The consensus price target held steady at US$89.52, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$140 and the most bearish at US$48.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 28% over the past five years. Compare this to the 576 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
