More People Keeping Cash Outside Banking System

Households may have started to hoard their cash, with new figures showing that the amount of money being kept outside Britain's banking system is now rising at the fastest rate since the financial crisis.

In the weeks following the EU referendum, the rate at which households and businesses built up holdings of UK banknotes and coins rose above 8% a year for the first time since 2009, according to a Sky News analysis of Bank of England statistics.

The growth rate of cash in circulation has more than doubled since January, when it was running at 4% a year, with a sudden acceleration in the weeks following the EU poll.

In cash terms, the amount of notes and coins outside the banking system rose by £1.2bn since the end of May, and by £5.9bn in the past year - the biggest annual rise on record.

The figures come the day before the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2009, further reducing the incentive for households to leave their money in bank accounts.

Investors are putting a 98% probability on the central bank taking borrowing costs down to the lowest level since the institution was created in 1694.

Sky News has also found that the proportion of UK banknotes circulating outside the banking system - in people's pockets, stored at home and outside the country - has now hit the highest level since 1979, as a percentage of GDP.

The sharp increase in the amount of notes and coins outside the banking system is likely to sound an alarm for economists, some of whom have warned that with interest rates at record lows, there is diminishing incentive for consumers to leave their money in bank accounts, prompting them to hoard their money at home.

However, Bank officials said that the rise in recent weeks could also be down to increased demand from foreign holidaymakers taking out banknotes to take advantage of the post-referendum fall in the exchange rate.

Simon Ward, economist at Henderson Global Investors, said: "People may be hoarding notes not for safety reasons but because the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates significantly, possibly even imposing a negative rate on bank reserves, forcing banks to start charging for operating current accounts."

"Hoarding may also reflect increased demand for £50 notes due to uncertainty about their future supply," he added.

"(BOE (Shenzhen: 200725.SZ - news) ) Governor Carney confirmed in June that there are no plans to introduce a plastic version of the £50 note, fuelling fears raised by Mr (BOE chief economist) Haldane's earlier speech that the Bank intends to restrict the future supply of cash in order to create scope for interest rates to fall further below zero."

Although the Bank is not expected to cut interest rates below zero, there are a number of countries, including Japan and Switzerland, which are experimenting with negative borrowing costs.

Some studies have shown that in those countries consumers have been tempted to keep money outside the banking system, prompting a sharp increase in demand for safes and for the use of money storage facilities.

:: A Sky Data Snap Poll has found that, if banks began charging a small fee to hold savings, just 29% of people would continue to keep their savings in a bank, 48% would keep them at home and 23% don't know what they would do.

Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1000 Sky (LSE: BSY.L - news) customers by SMS on 3rd August 2016. Data are weighted to the profile of the population.

For full Sky Data tables, please click here.