Morning MoneyBeat Europe: Waiting for Greece to Decide

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Good morning Europe.

A nervy session is in prospect Friday as European investors cast nervous eyes toward Sunday when the Greek people head to the polls to give or withhold consent for the latest package of measures proposed by the country's creditors.

A rejection would put the prospect of 'Grexit' back in sharp focus, while acceptance might well mean a new Greek government and a new range of uncertainties.

Greece aside, markets are mulling Thursday's U.S. labor statistics, which while pretty good at first glance, contained downside revisions to earlier data and a lower overall participation rate.

Europe will have to do without U.S. leads Friday, with markets there closed for the Independence Day holiday.

Market Snapshot: U.S. markets (Thursday close) DJIA down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.1%, S&P 500 flat. Nikkei now down 0.2%. Brent crude down 15 cents at $61.92. Gold up $3.40 at $1.166.90. EUR/USD at $1.1095, USD/JPY at ¥123.11. 10 year Treasury yields 2.38%, Bund 0.84%, Gilt 2.09%.

Watch For: Service Sector Purchasing Managers Indexes from France, Germany, the U.K. and the eurozone. We'll get a look at eurozone retail sales, too.

What You May Have Missed on MoneyBeat

June Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know: Yes, it was that time again, folks. It was “Jobs Friday,” (this time on a Thursday) when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: jobs. Here at MoneyBeat HQ, we crunched the numbers, tracked the markets and compiled the commentary before and after the data crossed the wires. Here’s how it all went down.

The June Jobs Report in 10 Charts: There’s a lot more to what’s happening in labor markets than the headline figures. Here’s a look at what the latest release from the Labor Department on Thursday tells us about the state of the U.S. economy, in 10 charts.

Will the Green Shoots Ever Rise?: Once again, we are being told to anticipate a stronger second-half of the year. Once again, we are being told that wage growth is just around the corner. Once again, the green shoots are poking out. Once again, we anticipate being disappointed.

A Short History of Syriza — in Financial Charts: Syriza’s ultimate significance to Greece–for better or worse–will be debated for a long time. But over the short term its impact on the Greek economy has been pretty unequivocally bad.

Greek ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ Campaigns Take to TV: The “yes” and “no” camps in Greece’s referendum took to the airwaves Thursday, both launching television adverts that adopted dramatic tones in their bid to gain support for a vote facing a highly uncertain result.

Greece’s Prime Minister May Be About to Do Exactly What He Said He Wouldn’t: Alexis Tsipras may be about to fulfill the very vision he said he wouldn’t. In 2013, Mr. Tsipras–then a contender to be Greece’s next prime minister–sought to reassure eurozone creditors, the U.S. and the International Monetary Fund he wouldn’t lead the country out of the eurozone. Two years later, Mr. Tsipras’s six-month tenure as prime minister has put Greece teetering on the edge of a financial maelstrom and pushed it to the brink of a eurozone exit.

The U.K. May Be About to Create the Perfect HSBC/Lloyds Trade : Next Wednesday the U.K. government will present a new budget, and analysts expect Treasury chief George Osborne to tackle the topic of the bank levy — effectively a tax on bank balance sheets that hits HSBC particularly hard. Any changes to that levy could have a big impact on U.K. banks, according to Bernstein analysts, and that could create a trading opportunity.

The U.K. Financial Regulator’s Annual Report – The Numbers: A drop in suspicious trading and an increase in calls from whistle-blowers were revealed in the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority 2014 annual report, published Thursday. Here are some of the key numbers.

From The Wall Street Journal

Europe’s Crowning Glory Imperils Postwar Project : The great project some hoped would eventually create a European superstate faces the biggest challenge of its history Sunday, when Greeks vote in a referendum that could decide whether they crash out of the eurozone.

BP to Pay $18.7 Billion to Settle Gulf Spill Claims : BP agreed to pay $18.7 billion over 18 years to settle all federal and state claims arising from 2010’s Deepwater Horizon oil spill, including the biggest pollution penalty in U.S. history.

IMF Says Greece Needs Debt Relief and More Aid : The International Monetary Fund warned that Greece would need debt relief and more than €60 billion ($66.6 billion) in new aid, raising the stakes in an already fraught Greek referendum over creditors’ bailout terms.