Results: Liberty Global Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Investors in Liberty Global Ltd. (NASDAQ:LBTY.A) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.4% to close at US$16.74 following the release of its first-quarter results. Liberty Global beat expectations by 4.1% with revenues of US$1.9b. It also surprised on the earnings front, with an unexpected statutory profit of US$1.32 per share a nice improvement on the losses that the analysts forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Liberty Global

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Taking into account the latest results, Liberty Global's twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$7.58b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 71% to US$2.22. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$7.58b and US$2.43 per share in losses. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$25.62, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Liberty Global at US$52.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.50. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2024. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 12% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 1.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Liberty Global is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Liberty Global's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Liberty Global going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Liberty Global you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.