Ryanair lifts profit forecast, looks forward to fare wars

* Annual traffic now forecast at 105 mln vs 104 mln

* Lifts 2024 passenger target to 180 mln from 160 mln

* Shares (Berlin: DI6.BE - news) up 2.2 percent after initial falls (Adds shares up after investor call; CEO quotes)

By Conor Humphries

DUBLIN, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Ryanair nudged up its annual profit forecast on Monday after a "bumper summer", saying fuller planes would take profits to the upper end of its previously estimated range.

The Irish airline, Europe's largest by passenger numbers, said a strong Easter next year might allow it to beat targets for passenger numbers and average fares.

Ryanair had already raised its annual profit forecast by 25 percent in early September thanks to lower fuel costs and a combination of strong sterling and poor weather in northern Europe, which boosted demand from sun-seeking Britons.

On Monday it said fewer empty seats meant it would fly 105 million passengers in the year to March 31, up from an earlier estimate of 104 million. This would lift profits to the upper end of the new forecast range of 1.175 billion euros to 1.225 billion euros ($1.30-1.35 billion).

"We have enjoyed a bumper summer due to a very rare confluence of favourable events including stronger sterling, adverse weather in northern Europe, reasonably flat industry capacity and further savings on our unhedged fuel," Chief Executive Michael O'Leary said.

He later told a conference call with industry analysts there was an "outside possibility" that a strong Easter could lift numbers closer to 106 million and that fares could fall less than a forecast 4 percent in the three months to March 31.

Shares were up 2.2 percent at 13.80 euros at 1323 GMT.

SHARES OUTPERFORM

British Airways owner IAG, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM (Other OTC: AFLYY - news) have all reported strong quarterly results on strong demand for summer travel and cheaper fuel.

But Ryanair's drive to improve customer service without increasing its industry-low cost base has given it huge momentum in the past year. Its shares are up 88 percent on a year ago, compared with an increase of just over 23 percent on the ThomsonReuters Europe Airlines Index.

Falling fuel prices mean Ryanair "has the capacity to lower prices for the next 12-18 months while either maintaining or increasing margins," O'Leary said, adding that the airline would be disappointed if there was no fare war.

He said he expected Ryanair to overtake easyJet on the British market during the coming 12 months and promised double-digit growth in capacity across most major markets.

Ryanair said its profit after tax for the six months to the end of September was 1.088 billion euros, up 37 percent compared with the same period last year and slightly ahead of market forecasts of around 1.064 billion euros.

It (Other OTC: ITGL - news) also upgraded its long-term forecast for passenger growth, saying it expected to be carrying 180 million passengers a year by 2024, up from a previous forecast of 160 million. Ryanair estimates this would give it a market share of around 24 percent in Europe, up from around 14 percent currently.

"The commentary was extremely positive," said Goodbody Stockbrokers analyst Mark Simpson. "We know that they are going hard into Germany, hard into Spain, and clearly they believe that is going to deliver growth that is above prior guidance." $1 = 0.9063 euros) (Additional reporting by Sarah Young; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)