Sky Poll: Almost half of Britons think Scotland will leave UK within a decade

Just under half of the British public say it is likely that Scotland will leave the UK within a decade, a Sky Data poll reveals.

Some 49% say Scotland will go independent in the next 10 years, while 43% say it is unlikely.

In contrast, 72% say Scottish independence would have been unlikely had the UK voted to remain in the European Union; 20% said it would have been likely even had the country voted Remain.

This was also reflected in polls prior to the EU referendum.

In a Sky Data poll in April, 54% said they thought it was likely Scotland would leave the UK within a decade if the UK left the EU, while 34% said they would do so if they voted Remain.

This finding was also reflected among Leave voters (51% thought Scotland would go independent if the UK voted Leave, 34% if they did not) suggesting that, for some Leave voters, Scottish independence was seen as a price worth paying for Brexit.

Polls in Scotland continue to show a close race, however.

The latest polls from Ipsos MORI, Survation, TNS and YouGov (LSE: YOU.L - news) have all shown a lead for the campaign for Scotland to remain in the UK by 53% to 47%.

As Nicola Sturgeon unveils her plan for a second independence vote, however, Britons are pessimistic regarding the chances of the United Kingdom remaining united.

Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,105 Sky (LSE: BSY.L - news) customers by SMS on 12 October, 2016.

Data is weighted to the profile of the population.

For full Sky Data tables, please click here.