By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar slid on Tuesday as rising German bond yields strengthened the euro, but a strong reading of the consumer price index later this week could reverse the currency's slide.
Traders kept an eye on U.S. midterm elections, whose outcome may usher in an era of divided government in Washington that would likely foil big social spending plans by Democrats.
A steady climb in German bond yields weakened the dollar on expectations of further European Central Bank tightening, which cut the spread with Treasury yields, said Marc Chandler, chief market speculation at Bannockburn Global Forex.
"I've played down the elections. For monetary and fiscal policy, I don't think it's much of a difference," he said. "What I'm focusing on today is a huge move in two-year German bunds. It's not about the Fed, it's about more aggressiveness from the ECB."
The yield on the two-year bund rose to 2.196%, a 25-basis-point gain from a week ago.
CPI data is due to be announced on Thursday, with economists forecasting the monthly and annual core numbers to advance 0.5% and 6.5%, respectively. Signs of improving inflation, though, might not slow the Federal Reserve's policy tightening that federal fund futures forecast will peak at 5.095% in June 2023.
"Inflation is going to moderate some more, but the service sector might not be giving us enough pricing relief," said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
"Once we've fully priced in peak Fed tightening, then you'll see a major reversal. A lot of people are trying to get ahead of that and they've been trying to do that all year and they've been getting burned."
The euro rose 0.55% to $1.0074, while the Japanese yen strengthened 0.75% against the dollar at 145.55.
The Fed could raise interest rates by 50 basis points when policymakers meet in December, again by the same amount in February and another 25 basis points at their March meeting, Moya said.
The interest rate differential with other currencies favors dollar strength, as do potentially severe recession risks abroad and China's ongoing struggles with COVID restrictions, he said.
Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ether plummeted on contagion concerns after crypto exchange Binance signed a nonbinding agreement to buy rival FTX's non-U.S. unit to help cover a "liquidity crunch."
If speculation that FTX's token FTT are being used as collateral prove true, there will be a similar domino effect as seen earlier this year with Luna, said Charles Hayter, chief executive and co-founder of data firm CryptoCompare.
But Joe DiPasquale, CEO of BitBull Capital, doubted bitcoin faces an extreme scenario. "It could see increased inflows as market participants withdraw from riskier assets," he said.
Bitcoin fell 11.13% to $18,299.00 after earlier hitting its lowest since November 2020 at $17,114.0. Ether plunged 16.23% to $1,313.70.
Currency bid prices at 4:28PM (2128 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Dollar index 109.5700 110.2100 -0.56% 14.537% +110.6200 +109.3600
Euro/Dollar $1.0076 $1.0017 +0.59% -11.37% +$1.0096 +$0.9972
Dollar/Yen 145.5450 146.6350 -0.74% +26.44% +146.9300 +145.3150
Euro/Yen 146.66 146.91 -0.17% +12.54% +146.9900 +146.0000
Dollar/Swiss 0.9853 0.9887 -0.33% +8.03% +0.9927 +0.9838
Sterling/Dollar $1.1547 $1.1516 +0.23% -14.65% +$1.1598 +$1.1430
Dollar/Canadian 1.3427 1.3492 -0.45% +6.22% +1.3527 +1.3387
Aussie/Dollar $0.6506 $0.6482 +0.36% -10.51% +$0.6551 +$0.6445
Euro/Swiss 0.9928 0.9903 +0.25% -4.25% +0.9936 +0.9883
Euro/Sterling 0.8723 0.8700 +0.26% +3.85% +0.8744 +0.8692
NZ $0.5962 $0.5941 +0.32% -12.92% +$0.6000 +$0.5899
Dollar/Norway 10.2215 10.2140 +0.07% +16.02% +10.3160 +10.1790
Euro/Norway 10.3008 10.2324 +0.67% +2.88% +10.3305 +10.2356
Dollar/Sweden 10.7504 10.8316 -0.21% +19.21% +10.8958 +10.7160
Euro/Sweden 10.8356 10.8580 -0.21% +5.85% +10.8850 +10.8098
(Reporting by Herbert Lash, additional reporting by Hannah Lang in Washington and Alun John in London; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Ed Osmond, Tomasz Janowski and Mark Heinrich and Jonathan Oatis)