Inverted Yield Curve Is Hiding in Plain Sight

Pray for the global economy. For much of the past year or so, investors and economists have anxiously watched the relentless shrinkage of the gap between short- and long-term U.S. bond yields to the narrowest levels since 2007. Within the past two months, the yield on an ICE Bank of America index of government bonds due in seven to 10 years has fallen below the yield on an index of bonds due in one to three years for the first time since the first half of 2007.