Why Alcoa’s 2018 Guidance Miffed Analysts

Alcoa (AA) expects to generate adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) between $2.6 billion and $2.8 billion in fiscal 2018. The guidance has baked in average LME (London Metals Exchange) aluminum prices of $2,200 per metric ton and API (alumina price index) of $390 per metric ton. In arriving at this guidance, Alcoa has assumed almost flat alumina (AWC) and bauxite shipments as compared to 2017 with a slight decrease in its aluminum shipments (CENX).