5 Things About Asean and the South China Sea Dispute

Southeast Asian countries are grappling with how to respond to an international tribunal’s ruling that dealt a blow to China’s claims to 90% of the South China Sea. The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations is split between countries that have territorial claims or usage of the waters, and others who are more dependent on Chinese aid and have sided with Beijing, undermining the group’s ability to come to a consensus position that would boost its diplomatic clout. The tribunal ruled that China’s claim had no basis in international law and that other countries enjoyed “exclusive economic zones” of 200 nautical miles extending from their shores. The increasing military presence of China and the U.S. throughout the region has made the area a potential flashpoint.

#1: Legal Loss for China

On July 12, an international arbitration tribunal at The Hague ruled that China’s so-called “nine-dash line,” a demarcation it uses to claim most of the South China Sea, had no legal basis under the U.N. Convention of the Law of the Sea, a treaty to which China and Southeast Asian nations are parties. The ruling was a win for the Philippines, which instigated the case in 2013, but also for countries that claim usage rights extending 200 nautical miles from their shores into the sea, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei. The tribunal also faulted China for preventing the Philippines from accessing parts of the disputed waters and said China had caused environmental damage.

#2: Standoff

The ruling is binding and the U.S., Japan and Australia have called on all parties to abide by it, but China has rejected it. Since the ruling, China has started up long-range bomber patrols far into the sea, declared new naval exercises and said it would continue its efforts to build up artificial islands in disputed waters. The U.S. has said it will continue flying and sailing military aircraft and vessels across the sea to assert freedom of navigation rights, a practice that has increased as the dispute has grown. Before the ruling, France called on Europe to enter the fray by sending ships to assert freedom of navigation. Onlookers are watching to see if China moves to declare an Air Defense Identification Zone in an attempt to regulate air traffic over the area. Some $5 billion in trade passes through the waters each year.

#3: Test of Southeast Asian Unity

Southeast Asian nations have been cautious about antagonizing China, a key trade and investment partner. None has issued a strong statement calling on China to formally abide by the ruling, though most have urged for international law and treaties to be followed, a softer formulation. China has pushed Asean to not support the ruling, saying the Philippine case runs counter to long-stalled China-Asean efforts to resolve the dispute and amounts to “treachery.” China says that Asean states should “not endorse any misconducts which violate” a declaration of conduct for the area reached in 2002 and asserts that “various states within Asean take different stances on the South China Sea issues.” Key China ally Cambodia has said the ruling amounts to a bilateral issue and that it won’t sign on to group statements about it. China has voiced preference for years to resolve the disputes individually with its smaller, weaker rival claimants rather than Asean as a whole.

#4: A Change at Asean?

Frustration over an inability to find unity on the South China Sea issue has led to some Asean diplomats to call for changing the political-economic bloc’s founding rules, which require consensus and give each member an effective veto, to allow a majority to move forward on contentious issues. In economic decisions, for example, Asean allows members to defer or delay participation in some initiatives. Euan Graham, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, said that “Asean can no longer afford to be held hostage by its more pliable and most recent members.’’ It is unclear whether China could use its influence with allies in Asean to block any weakening of the consensus requirement on such an important security matter.

#5: Next Steps

Diplomats say the region is in a strategic pause following the ruling, largely because China is still digesting the decision internally. Their hope is that China’s reaction, including the new bomber patrols, is a nationalist message intended for a domestic audience and that with time, China’s stance will soften. Diplomats and analysts point to a Chinese policy paper issued after the ruling that makes no reference to the nine-dash line. Some leading Asean nations like Indonesia say they’re not considering legal moves of their own, largely because the tribunal’s decision amounted to a win for them. “Whether China doubles down or climbs down depends to a large degree on how the internal dynamic plays out,” Mr. Graham said.