5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar
A batch of economic data in the coming week will shed light on the economy’s strength as it entered the third quarter. The big report will be retail sales, offering a checkup of consumers, who have been skittish of late. Measures of labor-market slack and inflation, along with speeches by Federal Reserve policy makers, will give clues on how close the central bank is to raising short-term interest rates.
#1: Are Americans Boosting Spending?
Thursday, the Commerce Department estimates how much Americans spent at retailers in July. Retail sales have been choppy, with a decline in June following a big pickup in May. Considering that consumer spending reflects more than two-thirds of economic output, the July figure will reflect the economy’s vigor as it began the third quarter.
#2: What Say You, Fed Policy Makers?
The Fed suggested after its latest policy meeting that a September liftoff for interest rates is still in the cards. Speeches by two members of the Federal Open Market Committee could offer clues about the central bank’s latest thinking. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart—who told The Wall Street Journal the Fed is close to being ready to lift rates–speaks Monday in Atlanta. New York Fed President William Dudley speaks Wednesday in Rochester, N.Y.
#3: A Checkup on Factories
Friday, the Fed provides a snapshot of how much factories, utilities and the mining sector produced in July with the release of the industrial production report. Manufacturers have struggled to gain momentum this year amid global economic woes that have hit exports. The factory measure of the industrial production report will show whether underlying demand is picking up or continues to slump.
#4: Another Measure of Job-Market Slack
The big monthly employment report came out Friday, but the government releases another key measure of labor-market slack Wednesday. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as Jolts, will reveal whether employers are trying to fill more openings, and whether workers are confident enough to voluntarily leave current jobs for better ones. Both measures could hint at whether the labor market continues to tighten, which would put upward pressure on wages.
#5: Price Measures Could Shine Light on Inflation
Inflation pressures have been virtually nil over the past year, but there are signs prices are firming and very slowly heading upward. Two measures—Thursday’s report on import prices and Friday’s release of the producer-price index—will offer clues on where consumer prices might be headed. The Fed wants confidence that inflation is slowly heading toward the central bank’s 2% annual target before it starts to raise interest rates.