5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Next week’s roster of reports will bring a first look at the winter economy, two readings of consumer optimism, consumer income and spending and factory surveys. All that plus a two-day Fed meeting! In a busy week, here are five things to watch:

#1: A Quiet Fed Meeting Expected

The Federal Reserve meets for two days, and economists do not expect policymakers to make major changes to the policy statement due on Wednesday. One possible addition to look for is any new mention of the dollar’s strength or international concerns.

#2: Weather Likely Froze Winter Growth

The Commerce Department will release its first look at first-quarter gross domestic product. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect the economy grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 1.0%, from 2.2% in the fourth quarter. Back in January, economists thought the economy would grow by 3% in the winter, but harsh weather conditions and supply disruptions from the West Coast port slowdown caused most of the downshift.

One category to look for is inventory accumulation. If stockpiling accounted for a large share of GDP growth in the winter, businesses will have to work down those supplies before ordering or producing new goods.

#3: Car Sales Will Drive Early Look at April Spending

If the first-quarter demand growth disappoints, how about this quarter? A first major read on consumer spending will come from the April sales reported by automakers on Friday. Sales fell in January and February, but most economists attributed that to bad weather and—sure enough—car-buying bounced back to an annual rate of 17.1 million in more seasonal March. Economists expect sales in April will have fallen slightly, back to 16.9 million. Anything above 16.5 million will be viewed as a reassuring start for second-quarter consumer spending.

#4: Another Wage Gauge to Gauge

Average hourly earnings for private employees within the monthly payrolls report garners the most attention when it comes to wage growth as tracked by the Federal Reserve. But many economists think the wage and salary component of the quarterly employment cost index is a better gauge. Yearly growth in the ECI has lagged that of hourly average pay, but unlike hourly pay, it sped up over the course of 2014.

The Labor Department will release its first-quarter ECI data on Thursday. If the ECI for wages and salaries accelerates further from 2014′s 2.1% pace, it would be a sign of tighter labor markets.

#5: Do More Consumers Expect a Raise Soon?

Two consumer surveys are on tap next week: Consumer confidence on Tuesday, and consumer sentiment on Friday. One area of interest will be consumer expectations about future incomes as captured in the Conference Board‘s confidence survey. Recent reports show s rising share of consumers think their earnings will increase in the next six months. The rising share is a sign that more consumers are confident about job prospects.