5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

The April employment report will headline a busy data week for economy-watchers. Coming reports might change what we think of first-quarter growth and our views of what’s ahead. To those ends, here are five things to watch.

#1: April Thaw Expected in Job Growth

The Labor Department releases the April jobs report Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect nonfarm payrolls increased by 220,000 jobs last month. That follows the unexpectedly weak 126,000 slots added in March, a miss that economists blamed on weather. To the extent winter conditions did hold down March hiring, expect to see big April rebounds in payrolls in the construction and leisure and hospitality sectors. Economists also expect the April unemployment rate slipped to 5.4% from 5.5% in March.

#2: March Trade Numbers Will Inform New GDP Estimates

When calculating the first-quarter gross domestic product data released on April 29, the Commerce Department had to pencil in the March trade deficit. It estimated the merchandise gap widened by a massive 17%. Trade flows were scrambled by the West Coast port slowdown that began in late 2014. Indeed, both exports and imports fell sharply during the slowdown. The thinking is that the end of the West Coast port slowdown in late February enabled export and import shipments to move more easily in March.

The March estimate meant foreign trade subtracted a massive 1.25 percentage points from winter GDP growth. The actual data will be reported Tuesday. If the March trade gap did not widen as much as Commerce calculated, then trade was less of a drag on GDP growth.

#3: Don’t Laugh. Inventories Are Important

Commerce also had to estimate the March inventory figure when calculating first-quarter GDP. Commerce estimated a drop in factory inventories but a further buildup of merchandise stored by wholesalers. The resulting quarterly stockpile figure was a big contributor to GDP growth. In fact, real final sales—GDP minus inventories—actually shrank slightly over the winter. Commerce releases the actual March inventory data on manufacturing Monday and wholesalers Friday. A big miss in either sector could mean a large revision to GDP when Commerce releases its second take on GDP on May 29.

#4: Another Drop Projected in Productivity

Productivity growth has lagged in this expansion compared with upturns that have lasted this long. The difference worsened in the fourth quarter when productivity fell at a 2.2% annual rate. Labor releases first-quarter data Wednesday, and economists think output per hour worked fell again last quarter. That’s because aggregate work time grew faster that output did.

#5: Fed Speakers on Tap

Now that the Federal Reserve has removed a calendar guidance for the first interest-rate increase, Fed-watchers want to know what reports and data will drive policy decisions. Some insight may come from speeches made by bank officials. Central bankers set to speak next week include Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, Fed governor Daniel Tarullo, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, San Francisco Fed chief John Williams, Minneapolis Fed head Narayana Kocherlakota, Kansas City Fed chief Esther George, and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart.