5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Next week’s calendar is chock-full of important data, especially the February jobs report Friday. Weather and West Coast port problems could distort some numbers, however, so be cautious. Here are five things to watch.

#1: Payrolls I: Weather Could Chill Some Data

February is the month when weather most affects economic activity. The Labor Department’s monthly survey of labor force participants tracks workers who could not get to their jobs because of weather. February’s average of 387,000 over the past decade is higher than any other month. February 2015 could find another large number, especially among snowbound workers in New England. Labor still counts these workers as employed as long as they are paid during the survey period. But weather could skew the average workweek and it might have delayed the start dates of new hires, which could lower Friday’s payrolls number.

#2: Payrolls II: Still Waiting for Wage Liftoff

Watching for a pickup in yearly wage growth above 2% is becoming “Waiting for Godot” for economy-watchers. Average hourly earnings did pop 0.5% in January, but that followed a 0.2% drop in December and might have been calendar-related. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal think wages in February increased 0.2%. If so, that will keep yearly wage growth stuck near 2%.

#3: Port Problems Could Skew the Trade Deficit

The Commerce Department reports January trade data Friday. No matter the number for the U.S. trade deficit in January, take it with a grain of salt. Trade flows are being disrupted by the labor slowdown at ports along the West Coast. Paul Ashworth, U.S. economist at Capital Economics, says “early port data also show that both the number of incoming and outgoing containers handled at those ports fell very sharply in January.” That means steep declines in both import and export activity in January. Although a tentative agreement has been reached, it will take weeks before shipping flows normally.

#4: How Much White in Beige Book?

The Fed’s Beige Book will be released Wednesday. The book is a compilation of anecdotal reporting on economic conditions in each district and prepared ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting March 17-18. Of interest will be weather-related drags reported by districts along the East Coast, but especially Boston. Too busy to read the whole book? Real Time Economics will do it for you.

#5: Energy Use Could Heat Up Consumer Spending

The Fed has already reported that utilities nationwide pumped up output in January after warmer-than-normal temperatures held down demand for heat in December. While there’s not a one-to-one correlation, the gain in utility output suggests households spent more on heating in January. But turning up the thermostat left less money for other purchases, which could explain the lackluster performance of January retail sales. Economists expect a small drop in the month’s total consumer spending when data are released Monday.