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Acadia (ACAD) Down 0.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD). Shares have lost about 0.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Acadia's Q2 Earnings & Revenues Surpass Estimates

Acadia reported a second-quarter 2022 loss of 21 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 25 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the company had incurred a loss of 27 cents per share.

Total revenues, comprising net sales of Nuplazid, increased 17% year over year to $134.6 million in the second quarter, driven by Nuplazid demand growth. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $131 million. Nuplazid’s sales increased 16.5% sequentially in the reported quarter.

Quarter in Detail

Research and development (R&D) expenses were $75.6 million for the quarter, up 32.8% year over year, owing to increased costs related to pipeline development activities, especially ACP-044, ACP-319 and other early-stage pipeline candidates.

Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $89.9 million, down 7.1% year over year, owing to reduced advertising and promotional costs as well as lower personnel expenses.

As of Jun 30, 2022, Acadia had cash, cash equivalents and investments worth $436.4 million compared with $446 million as of Mar 31, 2022.

2022 Guidance

Acadia updated the financial guidance for 2022.

The company now expects Nuplazid net sales in the range of $510-$540 million compared with the earlier projection of $510-$560 million for 2022. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $530.98 million.

The company expects R&D expenses in the range of $340-$360 million compared with the $355-$375 million expected previously. SG&A expenses are expected to be $360-$380 million, unchanged from the previous guidance.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 9.29% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Acadia has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Acadia has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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