Yahoo Finance Aflac Incorporated Just Recorded A 111% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Aflac Incorporated (NYSE:AFL) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Statutory revenue of US$5.4b and earnings of US$3.25 both blasted past expectations, beating expectations by 27% and 111%, respectively, ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Aflac
After the latest results, the consensus from Aflac's nine analysts is for revenues of US$17.8b in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 7.9% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 13% to US$8.13 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$17.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.30 in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very substantial lift in earnings per share in particular.
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$85.17, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aflac analyst has a price target of US$95.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$77.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aflac's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Aflac's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 10% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 3.4% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.9% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Aflac is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Aflac following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$85.17, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Aflac analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Aflac (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
