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Is Air China Limited (HKG:753) Potentially Undervalued?

Let’s talk about the popular Air China Limited (HKG:753). The company’s shares saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the SEHK over the last few months. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Air China’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Air China

What is Air China worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my relative valuation model. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-equity (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Air China’s ratio of 11.43x is trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 9.62x, which means if you buy Air China today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe that Air China should be trading at this level in the long run, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Air China’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of Air China look like?

SEHK:753 Future Profit October 8th 18
SEHK:753 Future Profit October 8th 18

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. With profit expected to grow by 47% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Air China. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? 753’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at 753? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

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Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on 753, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for 753, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Air China. You can find everything you need to know about Air China in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Air China, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.