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Allowances Price and GHG Emissions Forecast for WCI Carbon Market to 2030

Research and Markets
·4-min read

Dublin, Sept. 25, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "2030 Allowances Price and GHG Emissions Forecast for WCI Carbon Market" report has been added to's offering.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB), provides annual emissions data for each facility within an organization. California Carbon compiles that data and segregates facilities into nine sectors. The publisher then looks at sector-wise macroeconomic indicators to derive a usable correlation between variables to provide the forecast up to 2030. In the emissions forecast for 2018, an accuracy of 99.6% was achieved against actual data. This report provides a forecast for emissions, supply-demand, and prices up to the year 2030.

The report is segregated into six sections. Section one of the report gives an overview of the present WCI market emissions. The reported emissions data from 2018 is analyzed by sector and major entity. Section two of the report evaluates how regulations have evolved over time, and how market prices have been affected by these regulatory shifts. Section three presents the sectoral emissions forecast through to 2030. Consequently, California Carbon Allowance (CCA) supply-demand forecast is laid out in section four. Section five builds on this balance to give a 2030 WCI price forecast. Whilst section six concludes some of the research and provides an opinion on the program's future.

On the 4th November 2019, the California Air Resources Board released the annual GHG emissions for all entities listed to report their emissions under the cap-and-trade program. A total of 319,882,513 MtCO2e was reported for the year 2018, 0.22% lower than the previous year. Of the 814 entities listed in the report, 410 entities reported emissions greater than 25,000 MtCO2e; slightly lower than the 416 entities for the report year 2017. 25,000 MtCO2e is the threshold for involvement in the Cap-and-Trade (CaT) market.

Transportation Fuel and CO2 suppliers are the largest emitters under the cap-and-trade program. In 2018, the emissions reported for the sector was 159.54MMt CO2e. The forecast presents a consequent decline in emissions by 0.33% (0.53 MMt CO2e), to 159MMt CO2 for the year 2019.

Natural Gas Suppliers sector reported the second-largest emissions for the year 2018 at 44.3MMt CO2e. The emissions forecast corresponds to a decline of 1.43% (0.63MMt CO2e), closing at 44.70MMt CO2e for the year 2019.

In the year 2018, Refineries and Hydrogen plants sector accounted for 11.06% (35.379MMt CO2e) of total emissions. The forecast suggests a decrease in emissions by 0.077MMt CO2e, summing up to 35.30MMt CO2e for the year 2019. The sector is expected to reduce overall emissions marginally all the way up to 2030.

Fossil fuel electricity generation gauged a total of 31.30MMt CO2e in 2018, 1.4% (0.42MMt CO2e) higher than 2017. The forecast suggests a decrease in sectoral emission by 0.42MMt CO2e, from 31.30MMt CO2e (2018) to 30.88MMt CO2e (2019).

Emissions from Electricity importers accounted for 18.79MMt CO2e in the year 2018. The emissions for the year 2019 are expected to be nearing 18.96MMt CO2e, a slight annual increase with falls to come over the following years.

Oil and Gas Production reported GHG emissions at 14.04MMt CO2e for the year 2018. The forecast presents a decrease of 0.2MMt CO2e, amounting to 13.8MMt CO2e in the year 2019. Other Combustion Sources reported emission at 8.28MMt CO2 for the year 2018. The forecast suggests a decrease of 0.027MMt CO2e, closing at 8.30MMt CO2e for the year 2019.

Key Topics Covered:

1 Context for the market

2 WCI Regulatory Timeline
2.1 Model Update on the proposed entry of Oregon in the Cap and Trade

3 California GHG Emissions Forecast
3.1 Forecast Methodology
3.2 Long-term sectoral emissions forecast
3.3 Sectoral breakdown of forecasted emissions and production
3.4 Other Cogeneration
3.5 WCI's GHG emissions forecast

4 Supply- Demand Forecast of Carbon Allowances in WCI

5 WCI Carbon allowance price forecast
5.1 Assumptions:
5.2 Allowance price forecast under base case emissions scenario:
5.3 Allowance price forecast under low case emissions scenario
5.4 Allowance price forecast under high emissions case scenario
5.5 Offsets

6 Looking ahead

Companies Mentioned

  • Aera Energy

  • Berry Petroleum Company

  • California Resources Corporation

  • Chevron USA

  • Long Beach Gas and Oil Department

  • Pacific Gas and Electric

  • Phillips 66 Company

  • Rio Tinto Minerals

  • San Diego Gas and Electric

  • Sempra Gas and Power Marketing

  • Shell Oil Products US

  • Southern California Gas Company

  • Southwest Gas Distribution Facilities

  • Tesoro Refining and Marketing Company

  • Valero Refining Company

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