Yahoo Finance Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC)
One thing we could say about the analysts on CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.
Following this downgrade, CureVac's seven analysts are forecasting 2023 revenues to be €66m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to see a sharp uptick, reaching €1.26. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €80m and losses of €1.15 per share in 2023. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for CureVac
The consensus price target fell 8.9% to €15.88, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on CureVac, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €24.08 and the most bearish at €10.24 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 1.8% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 44% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 14% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that CureVac's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at CureVac. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that CureVac's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of CureVac going forwards.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple CureVac analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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