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Analysts Just Slashed Their BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) EPS Numbers

Today is shaping up negative for BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to next year's forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business.

Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the 14 analysts covering BioNTech, is for revenues of €8.3b in 2023, which would reflect a painful 55% reduction in BioNTech's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to plummet 66% to €14.41 in the same period. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €9.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of €17.46 in 2023. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about BioNTech's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Check out our latest analysis for BioNTech

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €193 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic BioNTech analyst has a price target of €308 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €147. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

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One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 47% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 86% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - BioNTech is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on BioNTech after the downgrade.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BioNTech going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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