Analysts Are Updating Their Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results
It's been a pretty great week for Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$5.37 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$106m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with Rocket Lab USA losing US$0.08 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Rocket Lab USA
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Rocket Lab USA from eleven analysts is for revenues of US$426.3m in 2024. If met, it would imply a substantial 30% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$0.38. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$434.1m and losses of US$0.39 per share in 2024.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$7.25, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Rocket Lab USA analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Rocket Lab USA's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 70% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 52% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 2.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Rocket Lab USA to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Rocket Lab USA. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Rocket Lab USA analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Rocket Lab USA that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.