Andalusia starts Spain's election process, UK ex-pats focus on the outcome

LONDON (ShareCast) - The UK's eyes are on the beginning of Andalusia's Sunday 22 March elections, which at the same time kicks off the Iberian country's 2015 election process. The results will end up forging the political future for the region that houses 90,000 British ex-pats. Election results could reflect the country's political future The voting outcome could affect more than 90000 British ex-pats"An absolute majority would be the best result" said Spanish PMThese regional elections will be the starting point for the rest of the local and regional elections in the upcoming months, while Spain's general elections are scheduled for the end of the year. The date has yet to be determined.

The outcome is expected to give a first glance at Spain's sentiment towards the austerity measures and the corruption scandals that have affected the national political outlook in recent months. They will also be proof of the real influence held by the two newest and fast-rising leftist parties Podemos ("We Can") and Ciudadanos (Citizens (NYSE: CIA - news) ).

BRITISH CITIZENS CONCERNED ABOUT HOUSING LAWS The 76,000 British households in the region will follow the elections, as the results could decide the future of thousands of them, who were allegedly duped into buying illegally-built properties and are involved in legal procedures.

Spain's southern and traditionally-agricultural region has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union (EU). It had 1.4m citizens unemployed by the end of 2014, representing 36.3% of the local population, according to the latest data released by the EU statistics office Eurostat.

This rate is even higher than the national average of 23.4%.

In addition, its financial debt grew last year up to €29.1bn, registering an increase of 19% in comparison to 2013. FRAGMENTED POLITICAL SPECTRUM The region's leader and socialist party PSOE´s chief Susana Díaz convoked elections ahead of scheduled in January, due to her mistrust over coalition partner United Left (IU, as abbreviated in Spanish). The PSOE, who has been in power in the region since 1982, will have to confront the threat that the other political parties pose. In addition, it faces serious corruption scandals, as the former PSOE members have been accused of misusing funds earmarked for unemployment subsidies.

"An absolute majority would be the best result", said the Spanish Prime Minister (PM) and PP member Mariano Rajoy when asked about these elections. "The great political pacts are achieved together with the PSOE", added Rajoy in reference to some of the accords reached with his major opposition.

MARKET´S VIEW ON THE ELECTIONS The possible divided outcome has made analysts as well as investors pay special attention to the polling day. Société Générale economist Yvan Mamalet said that Sunday's elections would set the stage for the beginning of Spain's political process.

"Sunday's vote will provide some insights into the real level of Podemos' and Ciudadanos' popular support and whether any agreement between the traditional parties and these two 'new' parties might be possible," Mamalet commented.

Some analysts also pointed out that the Spanish stock market benchmark Ibex 35 could be affected if Podemos achieves major representation. Daniel Pingarrón, IG Markets strategist, told Digital Look's Spanish sister-site Bolsamanía, that the two worst-case scenarios would be "a very divided result, in which a two-party coalition wouldn't be enough to form a government, or a very good result for Podemos".