Surprise fall in UK inflation muddies Bank of England rates picture
* UK inflation falls for 3rd month running
* Sterling falls to 2018 low against dollar
* Data add to doubts about next BoE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) rate hike timing
(Adds detail, new quotes)
By Andy Bruce and William Schomberg
LONDON, May 23 (Reuters) - British inflation fell
unexpectedly in April, according to data that prompted fresh
questions about when the Bank of England would next raise
interest rates and pushed sterling to its lowest level against
the dollar this year.
Consumer prices rose by an annual 2.4 percent, the Office
for National Statistics said on Wednesday, marking a 13-month
low as the timing of the Easter holidays meant air fares pushed
down on inflation last month.
Although the BoE had expected inflation to ease in April,
most economists in a Reuters poll thought it would hold steady
at 2.5 percent and some had forecast a rise. It was the second
surprise fall in a row after a drop in March's figures.
"With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) consumers remaining cautious and borrowing appearing
to have fallen substantially, a rate hike over the next few
months is certainly not a done deal," ING economist James Smith
said.
Investors priced in a one-in-three chance of the BoE raising
borrowing costs in August -- the next time it updates its
economic forecasts -- down from 50/50 earlier this week.
Two weeks ago the BoE refrained from a hike that had at one
point been widely expected as it waited to see if the economy's
weak start to the year simply reflected heavy snowfall.
A Reuters poll of economists, conducted before Wednesday's
data, showed most still expected an August hike.
High inflation, caused by the pound's drop after the 2016
Brexit vote, squeezed British consumers last year. Although it
has receded from its November peak of 3.1 percent, it is running
above the BoE's target of 2.0 percent.
On Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney cited a new
sugar tax on soft drinks, as well as higher utility bills and
petrol prices, as reasons why inflation in Britain "probably
tips up a bit" in the coming months before resuming a decline.
The ONS said soft drink prices rose sharply over the last
couple of months but the overall impact on inflation was small.
Data last week showed inflation in the euro zone also slowed
in April.
Wednesday's figures pointed to some signs of inflation
pressure still in the pipeline in Britain.
Prices of goods leaving factories increased at a faster rate
than expected last month and the cost of raw materials -- many
of them imported such as oil -- was 5.3 percent higher than in
April 2017, up sharply from an increase of 4.4 percent in March
and suggesting a long run of weakening price growth has ended.
(Editing by Toby Chopra)