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What's in the Cards for Inovio (INO) This Earnings Season?

Zacks Equity Research
Updated

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. INO is scheduled to report first-quarter 2018 results on May 9.

Shares of Inovio have outperformed the industry in a year’s time. The stock has gained 8.3% against the industry’s decrease of 13.1%.

 

Inovio’s earnings performance has been a mixed bag over the last four quarters. The company surpassed expectations on three occasions while lagging the same once. Overall, it delivered an average miss of 4.68%.

Last quarter, the company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate with a positive surprise of 25%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

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Factors to Consider

Given that Inovio’s portfolio is devoid of any revenue-generating product, investors’ focus will remain on its pipeline as well as regulatory updates on the conference call.

VGX-3100 is the most advanced candidate in the company’s pipeline. Inovio is conducting a pivotal phase III REVEAL program to evaluate the safety and efficacy of VGX-3100 for the treatment of cervical dysplasia caused by human papillomavirus (“HPV”). Another phase II study is examining the efficacy of VGX-3100 in women with HPV-related vulvar neoplasia.

Apart from VGX-3100, Inovio has several candidates in its pipeline in early-to-mid-stage development. Also, the company is working to develop Ebola, Zika and Middle East respiratory syndrome virus vaccines.

In the quarter, Inovio amended its license and collaboration agreement with ApolloBio Corporation related to development and commercialization VGX-3100 for HPV within Greater China. The amended agreement includes an increase in upfront payment and excludes equity provisions.

In January 2018, the company announced that its universal influenza vaccine demonstrated protective antibody responses against all major strains of H1N1 influenza viruses from the last 100 years.

Inovio received milestone payment from Medimmune related to advancing of MEDI0457 and checkpoint inhibitor combination trial in head and neck squamous cell cancer to phase II in January.

The company’s top line varies on a quarterly basis, depending on the timing of receipt of collaboration revenues.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Inovio is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Inovio has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 27 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Inovio carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, a company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against the Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some biotech stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. APVO has an Earnings ESP of +36.94% and a Zacks Rank #3.  The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 11. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Array BioPharma Inc. ARRY has an Earnings ESP of +21.19% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 9.

Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc. ADVM has an Earnings ESP of +6.9% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 8.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Quote

 

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Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Array BioPharma Inc. (ARRY) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc. (ADVM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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