It's been a bad year for the number crunchers

Photograph: John Sibley/Reuters

This has been a bad year for bad news. Last week’s disappointment was laser-targeted at those of us who spend our days analysing the likes of GDP and unemployment figures: apparently, no one believes a word of it. So says new research supported by the very people producing the nation’s statistics (the imaginatively named Office for National Statistics). Having surveyed the public, the authors conclude that they have a pretty loose understanding of the economic statistics thrown at them. Worse, they don’t trust them. Less than half could define GDP and many believe unemployment and inflation are higher than official figures show.

This comes hard on the heels of the data fail that saw 16,000 positive Covid test results drop off the bottom of an Excel spreadsheet, meaning thousands more people at risk of infection were not contacted.

So, it’s not going well for number crunchers but there are some silver linings. That spreadsheet error was exploited by economists to measure the impact of contact tracing. They conclude that it reduces infections and saves lives (, thus, they also conclude, the mistake may have contributed towards 1,500 deaths).

Maybe there are upsides for us wonks if people don’t get economic stats. It’s a gentle nudge to us to communicate more clearly and, even if it’s not great that the public doesn’t get important economic concepts, at least no one is coming for our jobs. Competition, after all, is a very dangerous thing.

• Torsten Bell is chief executive of the Resolution Foundation. Read more at resolutionfoundation.org