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BCE Hits 10-Year Low, Rogers Dips After BMO Turns Sour on Telecom Outlook

(Bloomberg) -- Shares of BCE Inc. tumbled to the lowest in more than a decade and Rogers Communications Inc. suffered its biggest drop of 2024 after BMO Capital Markets published a darker outlook on Canada’s telecom sector.

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Analyst Tim Casey slashed his price target on Rogers to C$65, from C$80, and downgraded BCE and Quebecor Inc. Those three companies, along with Telus Corp., are the dominant players in the country’s wireless and cable industry.

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The prominent telecommunications analyst expects growing competition and lower cable revenue to pressure Rogers’ core sales through the third quarter. Meanwhile, in the province of Quebec, a price battle has erupted between BCE and Quebecor, which is pressuring margins.

BCE fell 2.5% to C$44.74 as of 2 p.m. in Toronto, the lowest intraday level since October 2013. Rogers and Quebecor were both down about 3%.

Rogers’ drop comes almost a year to the day since it closed its landmark acquisition of Shaw Communications Inc., Telus’s main competitor in a number of markets in Western Canada.

Some analysts have been bullish on Rogers because of that deal, arguing that with significant cost-savings efforts, the merger will fuel a significant jump in cash flow from its cable and internet business lines. But tougher competition is taking a bite out of cable revenue, Casey wrote, as he chopped his EBITDA forecast for Rogers by about 7% for this year and 6% for next year.

Casey cut BCE and Quebecor to market perform from outperform, expecting the competitive environment to lead to a slower growth outlook for both companies.

(Updates share movements beginning in the first paragraph.)

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