Yahoo Finance Betting markets say it’s 83% likely Brexit won’t happen by 29 March
It is now more than 83% likely that the UK won’t leave the European Union by 29 March, according to betting exchange Smarkets.
The peer-to-peer trading website, which prices bets like a commodity, also says it is now 99% likely that the vote on prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal will fail in Tuesday evening’s meaningful vote in the House of Commons.
“All forecasts are pointing to a historically bad defeat for May,” a Smarkets statement said. “Traders on Smarkets make it 23% that fewer than 200 MPs support the deal.”
READ MORE: The five main possible outcomes if the Brexit deal is rejected
May has increasingly warned that the choice is between her deal and a no-deal Brexit, with traders on the website now suggesting that the chance of the UK leaving without a deal is just 10%, close to all-time low levels.
The prime minister has warned those who oppose the deal that they risk “letting the British people down.”
That said, at 45%, Smarkets still favours the UK leaving the EU over an extension or revocation of Article 50, which triggered the two-year Brexit negotiation process.
MPs will vote at 7pm local time tonight on the deal. Despite a last-ditch attempt on Monday to get her MPs to support the deal, it is widely expected to be defeated.
