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Betting odds say Biden twice as likely to win US election than Trump

LaToya Harding
·Contributor
·2-min read
Thursday the pair clashed over coronavirus in their final debate in Nashville Tennessee. Photos: Brendan Smialowski and Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images)
Thursday the pair clashed over coronavirus in their final debate in Nashville Tennessee. Photos: Brendan Smialowski and Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images)

The latest US election odds have put Joe Biden as twice as likely to win than Donald Trump, as the 3 November deadline looms.

Odds for the Democratic challenger winning the White House is 67% compared to Trump’s 33%, data from betting exchange Smarkets showed, with state-by-state market data implying a 317-221 win for Biden's party.

With 11 days to go, it is Biden’s shortest odds yet to win the election and Trump’s longest odds of re-election since February.

The key battleground state of Florida is also now leaning slightly towards the Democrats at a 55% chance compared to 45% for the Republicans.

Almost 50 million people have already cast their ballots in a voting surge driven by the coronavirus pandemic. The 2020 election has already received more votes before polling day than the 2016 election.

READ MORE: The Presidential Debate Was Better Than the First—At Least According to Twitter

Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets said: “With over 36% of the votes submitted in 2016 already cast before the debate, it could prove to be too little too late for Trump. The pool of undecided voters up for grabs is shrinking by the day, and last night’s debate in Tennessee contained few surprises.

“This could spell trouble for Trump as he is rapidly running out of opportunities to turn the tide back in his favour, with our key election markets remaining unmoved.”

Biden has led the current race for months. He is currently ahead of the American president by a 9.8 percentage point lead, according to FiveThirthyEight’s national polling average.

He is also ahead in the battleground swing states that are expected to decide the overall outcome, including Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin - key states Trump won in 2016.

On Thursday the pair clashed over coronavirus in their final debate in Nashville Tennessee. Trump promised a quick vaccine and said that COVID-19 will “go away”, while Biden said he would not rule out more lockdowns, warning of a “dark winter” ahead.

It came as the US death toll rose above 220,000.

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