Laying $2,000 to win $100 rarely makes sense for a bettor, and that’s what it is going to take if one wants to bet Devin Haney to defeat Yuriorkis Gamboa on Saturday in Seminole, Florida.
Gamboa is nearly 40 and long past his best. Haney, 21, is the WBC lightweight champion and one of the most dynamic young champions in the world.
Haney’s speed is next-level and more than any other asset, it’s the one that gives him the possibility of becoming a superstar. Haney is Floyd Mayweather-level fast.
A fight with a prime Haney and a prime Gamboa would have been one for the ages, because Gamboa was exceedingly quick and explosive in his prime. But Gamboa was never disciplined, as Haney has been in his brief career, and didn’t always come with his best.
It won’t matter if he does that on Saturday, however. His best isn’t enough to beat Haney unless Haney simply walks into a punch.
At BetMGM New Jersey, Haney is -278 to win by KO/TKO/DQ or technical decision. So I’ll play three units on that, laying $834 to win $300. It’s still more than I like to lay, but Haney seems all but certain to finish this fight, so it’s the price you have to pay.
My guess of how the fight will go: They’ll be cautious for a round or so until Haney gets a sense of timing and distance. Around the third, I expect Haney to be catching Gamboa with flush shots. By the fifth, Gamboa figures to be down and in trouble.
Haney is a good finisher, but Gamboa is a veteran and knows how to survive. So I’m going to take a flyer on which round Haney finishes the fight and go with the eighth at +900.
By the eighth, Haney will have leveled enough damage to have Gamboa looking for the exit when he realizes he can’t win and doesn’t want to keep getting beaten up. It could go a little earlier, but I don’t want to play another round and then eat up some of my profit if I’m wrong on the specific round.
So let’s go with Haney to win by KO/TKO/DQ or technical decision at -278 and Haney at +900 to end the fight in the eighth.
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