Biden vs Trump: 9 Predictions about Salaries and Unemployment in 2025 Based on Who Wins the Election
The race is on and it’s heating up. As the Presidential campaigns between Biden and Trump square off, numerous scrutinies have been placed on the candidates themselves rather than the cost of living issues they’re hoping to tackle in a second term as Commander in Chief.
There’s a lot on the line for the American public regarding the economy, but two parts stand out in particular: salaries and unemployment.
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In an economy that’s already up and down, Americans are worried they might not have jobs under the next President and if they do get to keep their jobs, the pay could change in ways previously unforecasted. Who ends up being the next person in the White House will have ripple effects on both of these economic concerns, amongst many others.
Here are a few predictions about 2025 salaries and unemployment based on whether Biden or Trump is the next President of the United States:
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Economic Predictions for 2025 Under Joe Biden
Here are some of the key figures to keep an eye on during a second Biden term:
Salaries
Biden has often touted his economic record, steering the country back to not just a point of stability, but prosperity after the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown. Should he continue in office for a second term, wages are expected to grow.
“Indeed, one view under Biden’s administration is that policies to raise the federal floor — and, similarly, to advance unionization –could be supportive of wage spiking, especially for the low- and middle-income workforce,” stated Oliver Smith, a financial advisor and the founder of VAT Calculators.
“As Biden is expected in the labor sphere to put great emphasis on increasing wages through various measures, including the Raise the Wage Act for the lowest-paid workers, that can occur,” Smith described.
Inflationary Impact
The term “inflation” is thrown around a lot during the campaign as Americans describe being forced to make hard changes in their buying habits and budgets as prices continue to rise, even if it’s not entirely due to inflation. That being said, a Biden win could severely impact the inflation voters feel in their bank accounts.
“High wages can lead to inflationary pressures too and can corrode the real wage gains if not managed properly,” Smith said. “This implies even if the nominal wages increase, the real value of such wages can get impacted by price increases.”
Unemployment
Time and again, Biden and his campaign have emphasized a focus and dedication to job creation.
“His emphasis on infrastructure, clean energy, and technology sectors is no doubt going to create new jobs, reducing unemployment,” Smith explained. “His strategies in the Build Back Better plan aim to create millions of jobs in clean energy and infrastructure projects.”
Labor Market Tightness
“There is some upside pressure on creating good-quality jobs with perhaps tighter labor market regulations,” Smith described. “Yet, the net effect is expected to be positive because the government is spending more on job creation.”
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Economic Predictions for 2025 With Donald Trump as President
Here’s the outlook for those same figures under a second Trump presidency:
Wages
Two things that the Republican party and Trump have been very vocal about are the plans for tax cuts and deregulation across several industries.
“Trump’s economic approach will most likely be one of tax cuts and deregulation,” Smith noted.
“Such would encourage corporate profits and possibly result in higher salaries, focusing on higher incomes or executive levels,” Smith described. “Also, some middle-income workers were to benefit from the trickle-down effect.”
The flip side of policies that look to deregulate and cut corporate taxes is that anyone not in the upper class will feel income inequality to a higher degree.
Tax cuts and deregulation, according to Smith, “…can further increase income inequality, with substantial wage growth at the top end of the income scale. The gains from wage growth may not be equitably shared among the different economic classes.”
Unemployment
“Most of Trump’s policies are pro-business and intend to grow the economy through tax incentives and lower regulation,” said Smith, pointing out how this will directly stimulate the economy. Smith said it may lead to lower unemployment rates as businesses grow and eventually pay more employees.
“In contrast, aggressive trade policies and tariffs, if reinstated, could significantly impact international trade-dependent industries, with possible job loss in promising sectors,” Smith remarked. “The balancing act of these two factors will ultimately impact the overall unemployment rate.”
Corporate Social Responsibility and Ethical Considerations
Smith highlighted how a Biden administration “…is likely to focus more on corporate social responsibility, pressurizing companies to maintain fair wage levels and sustainable business models. That makes the labor market more ethically inclined but likely increases operational expenses for business organizations.”
“Trump, however, is expected to focus more on business efficiency and profitability, probably at the cost of CSR as a whole,” Smith countered. “This might bring greater economic benefits in the short term, but raise serious questions for the long-term ethical and social outlook of businesses across America.”
How Companies Will Be Affected
“Prepare for regulatory and policy shifts with ongoing vigilance and adaptability,” Smith advised.
“Under Biden do so with an added emphasis on compliance and a focus on full use of all governmental incentives for green power and infrastructure,” Smith explained. “Under Trump, do so chiefly through tax incentives and deregulatory momentum to spur growth aggressively.
How Individuals Will Be Affected
“Keeps track of economic policies to understand the possible impacts on personal finances,” Smith suggested. “Consider investments in sectors that are likely to emerge as winners from the focal points of each administration: clean energy under Biden or traditional industries under Trump.”
At its core, the 2024 presidential election will set the tone for the economy in 2025, no matter who wins.
“With an understanding of the potential implications of policy prescriptions by each candidate, businesses and individuals will be able to prepare for the future,” Smith said.
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