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A week ago, Blade Air Mobility, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDE) came out with a strong set of annual numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues were better than expected, with US$51m in sales some 16% ahead of forecasts. The company still lost US$0.93 per share, although the losses were marginally smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Blade Air Mobility's five analysts is for revenues of US$81.0m in 2022, which would reflect a major 60% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$0.59. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$68.3m and US$0.70 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$14.80, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Blade Air Mobility at US$16.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$13.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Blade Air Mobility's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2022 expected to display 60% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 116% over the past year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 25% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Blade Air Mobility's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Blade Air Mobility. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Blade Air Mobility analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Blade Air Mobility that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.