Bloomsbury Publishing plc (LON:BMY) just released its full-year report and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of UK£185m arriving 3.0% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were UK£0.17, 9.9% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Bloomsbury Publishing, is for revenues of UK£180.8m in 2022, which would reflect a discernible 2.3% reduction in Bloomsbury Publishing's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 4.9% to UK£0.16 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£177.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.14 in 2022. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a solid gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 9.0% to UK£3.62. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Bloomsbury Publishing analyst has a price target of UK£3.70 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£3.25. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 2.3% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bloomsbury Publishing is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Bloomsbury Publishing following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Bloomsbury Publishing analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Bloomsbury Publishing is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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