Yahoo Finance Chances of a Brexit deal by end of Sunday deadline is under 40%
The chances of Britain sealing a trade deal with the European Union has fallen to under 40%, just hours before the Brexit agreement deadline.
According to betting exchange Smarkets, odds in favour of a no-deal are edging towards 61%.
On the same exchange, bets for an agreement in 2020 traded as high as 89% just three weeks ago, but the odds have been in decline ever since.
Alongside this, odds on the transition period being extended stand at just 15%.
Smarkets head of political markets, Sarbjit Bakhshi, said: "As negotiations between the UK and the EU enter their final phase, both sides are ratcheting up the tension with the European Commission asking member states not to allow mini-transition-period extensions and the Royal Naval on standby to block European fishing vessels in the event of a no-deal outcome.
“Although the chance of a deal is a long way down from its high of 89% three weeks ago, recent developments, such as the UK dropping attempts to breach international law and allowing checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, suggest that a deal in 2020 is still within grasp, if still somewhat unlikely at 37%.”
Meanwhile, the UK’s foreign minister Dominic Raab told Sky News this morning there is still a long way to go in talks, suggesting that talks could continue beyond today’s deadline.
He said: “We want to be treated like any other independent self-respecting democracy. If the EU can accept that at a political level, then there’s every reason to be confident but there is still, I think, a long way to go.”
"If we're 99% there on the outstanding issues, you wouldn't want to leave any stone un-turned, but I think it's quite a high bar," he said.
READ MORE: UK civil service has over 2,000 Brexit-related vacancies as no-deal disruption looms
UK prime minister Boris Johnson chaired a meeting on Friday to “take stock” on Britain's preparedness for a no-deal scenario along with senior minister Michael Gove, who is responsible for Brexit planning.
While the UK formally left the bloc on 31 January 2020 it will fully leave the EU at the end of this year on 31 December.
The PM said the bloc needed to make a "big change" over the main sticking points on fishing rights and business competition rules, while Von der Leyen, who reiterated many times that “significant differences” remained, said no-deal was the most probable end to "difficult" talks.
Watch: Why is fishing so important in Brexit talks?
