Yahoo Finance Brexit negotiator Barnier set to become EU head
Michael Barnier is tipped to take the EU’s top job after concluding Brexit negotiations.
The French politician has raised his profile outside Brussels significantly since becoming the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator in 2016.
And his strong performance in the role looks set to see him become the next European Commission president, EU experts said today.
A new report by Vote Watch Europe puts Mr Barnier in “pole position” to replace Jean-Claude Juncker when his five year term comes to an end next year.
“His strong performance as the chief negotiator on Brexit is definitely the most important element boosting his candidature, also because his visibility is set to remain particularly high until the very end of the Brexit negotiations,” Vote Watch Europe researcher Davide Ferrari told Yahoo UK.
Mr Barnier first needs to be nominated the ‘spitzenkandidat’ (lead candidate) of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) for next year’s European elections.
He wanted the role for the 2014 European elections, but lost out by 245-382 votes to Mr Juncker in an internal EPP ballot.
“Now that Juncker is out of the race, there are not many other candidates with such a strong profile,” Ferrari added.
The EPP is the largest group in the European Parliament – although it doesn’t have an outright majority – and is expected to maintain that position in the forthcoming election.
That would make their lead candidate favourite to become the European Commission president – they also need to win the support of EU heads of state.
While Mr Barnier is the frontrunner, he is yet to win support from Angela Merkel’s German conservatives, according to Vote Watch Europe.
Their report says it’s rumoured the German Chancellor would prefer International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde, who was the first woman to become finance minister of a G8 economy.
Planning for Mr Juncker’s succession has already caused controversy.
His chief of staff, Martin Selmayr, was recently given a more permanent job as head of the EU’s civil service in a process that was today described by MEPs as a “coup-like action.”
And there is speculation that Mr Selmayr is pulling strings behind the scenes to support Barnier’s candidacy.
In a recent article for the Spectator, French journalist Jean Quatremer wrote: “Selmayr’s next mission is to put Barnier top of the list of the European People’s Party (a grouping of centre-right MEPs), which means he’ll be in pole position for the job under the Spitzenkandidat system that Selmayr did so much to set up.
“Barnier is the ideal candidate because he is (in Selmayr’s eyes), weak, malleable and Macron-compatible.”
“Macron-compatible” is a reference to winning support from MEPs likely to be elected next year from the En Marche party founded by French president Emmanuel Macron.
Because the EPP is unlikely to win a majority of MEPs, their candidate will require support from other parties in the European Parliament.
Last time, the centre-left group supported Mr Juncker in exchange for their own candidates being nominated for key positions, but they are likely to suffer losses at next year’s elections.
That could see MEPs from Mr Macron’s party become “king makers,” according to the Vote Watch Europe.
“Macron would probably find it difficult to oppose the opportunity of having a French, likely Barnier, at the helm of the Commission, as long as Europe En Marche is also given one of the other positions,” their report says.
