Brexit Warnings Wrong On Trade: Think-Tank

A warning that every household would be £4,300 worse off as a result of leaving the European Union is based on a false assumption about the value of the single market to British trade, according to a think-tank.

Civitas said the Treasury figures trumpeted by Chancellor George Osborne last month wrongly claimed that full membership of the single market was the most beneficial for trade compared to other relationships, while operating outside this under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules was the least beneficial.

The think-tank said that statistics from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed that in fact the reverse was true.

These figures showed that exports into the single market from those without a trade agreement with the EU had grown fastest, according to a study by analyst Michael Burrage.

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"His findings suggest that access to the single market as a member, far from being a benefit that must be preserved at any cost, has not proved advantageous in terms of the growth of UK goods exports, and that trading under WTO rules has not been a handicap," Civitas said.

Mr Burrage's analysis found that non-EU nations which have traded with the EU under WTO rules have seen stronger export growth to the single market since 1993 than either the rest of the EU or countries such as Norway, Iceland or Switzerland, which trade with it under separate agreements.

The UK's rate of export growth to the UK had been lower still, the study found.

Mr Burrage said: "For the UK the figures of exports of goods are clear, it has been downhill all the way. It (Other OTC: ITGL - news) is a startling, deeply depressing finding.

"For all the sound and the fury … it turns out that the exports of EU members trading with each other have not been able to grow as fast as those of countries who have avoided the entire circus, as well as the rule-making and the membership fees.

"It is a finding comprehensively at odds with HMT [HM Treasury] estimates of the past, present and future benefits of EU membership for UK trade."

Meanwhile, a separate Treasury analysis has warned that millions of pensioners could find themselves worse off if the UK quits the EU.

The analysis claimed that rising inflation, market turmoil and a fall in asset prices could see £32,000 wiped off the average pensioner's wealth.