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Brown-Forman Corporation's (NYSE:BF.B) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financial Prospects Look Decent: Is The Market Wrong?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Brown-Forman's (NYSE:BF.B) recent performance, when its stock has declined 11% over the past three months. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. In this article, we decided to focus on Brown-Forman's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

See our latest analysis for Brown-Forman

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

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So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Brown-Forman is:

29% = US$886m ÷ US$3.0b (Based on the trailing twelve months to October 2022).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.29 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Brown-Forman's Earnings Growth And 29% ROE

Firstly, we acknowledge that Brown-Forman has a significantly high ROE. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 16% which is quite remarkable. However, for some reason, the higher returns aren't reflected in Brown-Forman's meagre five year net income growth average of 3.1%. This is interesting as the high returns should mean that the company has the ability to generate high growth but for some reason, it hasn't been able to do so. We reckon that a low growth, when returns are quite high could be the result of certain circumstances like low earnings retention or or poor allocation of capital.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Brown-Forman's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 12% in the same period, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Brown-Forman is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Brown-Forman Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Despite having a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 39% (implying that the company retains the remaining 61% of its income), Brown-Forman's earnings growth was quite low. Therefore, there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

In addition, Brown-Forman has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 37%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 33%.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that Brown-Forman has some positive attributes. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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