Is Bunzl plc (LON:BNZL) Worth UK£31.9 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Bunzl fair value estimate is UK£25.32

• Current share price of UK£31.94 suggests Bunzl is potentially 26% overvalued

• The UK£30.72 analyst price target for BNZL is 21% more than our estimate of fair value

Does the May share price for Bunzl plc (LON:BNZL) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Bunzl

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£654.7m	UK£681.6m	UK£698.2m	UK£700.0m	UK£734.0m	UK£748.4m	UK£761.4m	UK£773.5m	UK£785.0m	UK£796.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x11	Analyst x12	Analyst x9	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 1.96%	Est @ 1.74%	Est @ 1.59%	Est @ 1.49%	Est @ 1.41%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 9.5%	UK£598	UK£569	UK£532	UK£487	UK£467	UK£435	UK£404	UK£375	UK£348	UK£322

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£4.5b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£796m× (1 + 1.2%) ÷ (9.5%– 1.2%) = UK£9.8b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£9.8b÷ ( 1 + 9.5%)¹⁰= UK£4.0b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£8.5b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£31.9, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Bunzl as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.182. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Bunzl

Strength

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Trade Distributors industry.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Trade Distributors market.

• Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Bunzl, there are three pertinent factors you should consider:

1. Risks: Be aware that Bunzl is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

2. Future Earnings: How does BNZL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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