Yahoo Finance When Should You Buy Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU)?
Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the LSE over the last few months, increasing to UK£8.45 at one point, and dropping to the lows of UK£6.31. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Grafton Group's current trading price of UK£6.90 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Grafton Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
Check out our latest analysis for Grafton Group
What's The Opportunity In Grafton Group?
According to my valuation model, Grafton Group seems to be fairly priced at around 14% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Grafton Group today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth £8.07, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Grafton Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What does the future of Grafton Group look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a negative profit growth of -13% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Grafton Group. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? GFTU seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on GFTU for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on GFTU should the price fluctuate below its true value.
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Grafton Group (1 is concerning) you should be familiar with.
If you are no longer interested in Grafton Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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