BUZZ-ASOS: guarding against a value trap

** As ASOS slumps 9.6 pct to a near 52-wk year-low, a warning to those looking to catch a falling knife.

** 3 profit warnings have taken the wind out of the sails. Stock is down 64 pct YTD but there could be more to come.

Chart: http://link.reuters.com/ces82w

** ASOS (Other OTC: ASOMY - news) announced today 2014-15 FY profit growth would be nearly flat against last year, versus the 23 pct growth expected by analysts.

** Stock has taken a sharp hit this year and yet analyst sentiment, on average, remains bullish: fifteen rate a "buy", with eight "hold" and just two "sell".

** At present StarMine SmartEstimate projects EPS growing at a moderate 7.8 pct annually over next 5 years while its intrinsic valuation model is less than half the current share price of 21.80 GBP/share.

Chart: http://link.reuters.com/bes82w

** Back in February StarMine's intrinsic valuation model put fair value on the stock at 12 GBP/shr when the stock traded over 70 GBP/shr.

** As earnings growth quickly fades the stock appears vulnerable trading at a forward P/E of 41 - nearly thrice that of Next. (RM (LSE: RM.L - news) : alasdair.pal.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)