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BUZZ-Brexit vote: Barclays says UK banks could rally 10-15% if deal passes

** Though bank investors are broadly expecting May's Brexit deal to be rejected at first, Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) sees scope for material share price moves in UK banks if deal passes

** The brokerage expects 10-15 pct jump in UK banks on deal passing and a 5-10 pct downside on "emphatic" rejection

** It, however, assumes the base case scenario among investors is a narrow rejection (meaning a second vote), which could lead to a muted market response

** "The current depressed level of UK stocks and GBP could limit the initial downside, even though markets will likely assign a higher probability to a 'no-deal Brexit' looking forward."

** Barclays also expects house builder stocks, notably Berkeley Group and Crest Nicholson (Frankfurt: A1KCZN - news) (up to +10%), to rally if deal passes

** KBW analysts remain "underweight" on UK-centered banks as they expect the deal to be rejected by a "decisive majority"

How UK banks fared since the EU referendum vote: