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BUZZ-European cement firms: JPMorgan sees few upgrades ahead

Reuters - UK Focus

** JPMorgan (LSE: JPIU.L - news) sees limited scope for upgrades to European large-cap cement stocks like HeidelbergCement (Other OTC: HDELY - news) , Lafarge (Paris: FR0000120537 - news) , CRH (NYSE: CRH - news) and Holcim (Other OTC: HCMLF - news) as the sector's valuation is looking rich

** Sector trades at 9.4 times estimated 2015 EV/EBITDA

** "We think focus will now shift from earnings upgrades/no downgrades to shareholder returns," JPMorgan says, adding that M&A activity should spark cash returns through dividends or buybacks

** Broker sees about 20 pct dividend upside on Lafarge-Holcim by 2017, assuming the two companies' merger goes through. It if doesn't go through, they see 20 pct, 16 pct and 9 pct downside risk to Lafarge, CRH and Holcim valuations, respectively

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** Cuts HeidelbergCement to "neutral" from "overweight" and recommends taking profits as its estimated 2015 EV/EBITDA of 7.7 times puts it at a 10 pct premium to its 12-mth forward historical avg

** Shares (Berlin: DI6.BE - news) in HeidelbergCement are down 1 pct in early trade. Lafarge is up 0.3 pct, CRH up 1.4 pct and Holcim up 0.3 pct (RM (LSE: RM.L - news) : maria.sheahan.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)