BUZZ-More travel, less shopping: the EU consumer stocks disconnect

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LONDON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - If sector performance this year is anything to go by prospects for people spending money on travel seem far brighter than them shopping in supermarkets.

** Travel & leisure is one of 2014's best performing STOXX indexes, up 5%, while the region's retail index is still in the red despite this month's attempt at a bounce. European stocks are up 2 percent so far this year.

** Barring short bursts of time when correlations break down the two sectors move in lock-step with each other.

** This year's divergence may be explained by the widening gap on earnings forecasts for the two sectors with analysts more optimistic about travel while retail has flatlined.

** Changes to EPS forecasts over the past 3 months paint a starker picture:

** Breaking it down its airlines (DT Lufthansa, up nearly a fifth, followed closely by Air France (Paris: FR0000031122 - news) and Ryanair ) propping up the T&L index while the likes of Carrefour (Paris: FR0000120172 - news) and Metro AG (Xetra: 725750 - news) are drags for retail.

** Air France reports this Thursday (all eyes on margins) while Europe's top retailer Carrefour reports March 5. Given the skew in expectations any surprises could see performance quickly revert to the mean.