Advertisement
UK markets closed

  • NIKKEI 225

    37,552.16
    +113.55 (+0.30%)
     

  • HANG SENG

    16,828.93
    +317.24 (+1.92%)
     

  • CRUDE OIL

    83.37
    +1.47 (+1.79%)
     

  • GOLD FUTURES

    2,341.40
    -5.00 (-0.21%)
     

  • DOW

    38,505.01
    +265.03 (+0.69%)
     

  • Bitcoin GBP

    53,622.18
    +214.16 (+0.40%)
     

  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,436.73
    +21.97 (+1.55%)
     

  • NASDAQ Composite

    15,719.39
    +268.09 (+1.74%)
     

  • UK FTSE All Share

    4,378.75
    +16.15 (+0.37%)
     
Money:

What is the true cost of the UK state pension?

To get a sense of the true value of the state pension, you can look at how much you would need to save to match it yourself

Calculating The Fair Value Of Alliant Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:LNT)

Simply Wall St
·4-min read

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Alliant Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:LNT) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Alliant Energy

Is Alliant Energy Fairly Valued?

As Alliant Energy operates in the electric utilities sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.7%. Compared to the current share price of US$50.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

ADVERTISEMENT

Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)

= US$1.9 / (5.7% – 2.0%)

= US$50.3

dcf
dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alliant Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Alliant Energy, we've put together three essential items you should explore:

  1. Risks: Be aware that Alliant Energy is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

  2. Future Earnings: How does LNT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here