Yahoo Finance Calculating The Fair Value Of Ontex Group NV (EBR:ONTEX)
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of Ontex Group NV (EBR:ONTEX) by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in June 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below. See our latest analysis for Ontex Group
The calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow forecast
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
Levered FCF (€, Millions) | €90.93 | €103.07 | €122.81 | €144.00 | €160.00 |
Source | Analyst x9 | Analyst x9 | Analyst x8 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 |
Present Value Discounted @ 8.19% | €84.05 | €88.06 | €96.99 | €105.12 | €107.96 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €482.18m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (0.9%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €160.00m × (1 + 0.9%) ÷ (8.2% – 0.9%) = €2.23b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = €2.23b ÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)5 = €1.50b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €1.98b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of €24.09. Relative to the current share price of €19.61, the stock is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 18.60% discount to what it is available for right now.
The assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Ontex Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For ONTEX, I’ve compiled three relevant factors you should look at:
Financial Health: Does ONTEX have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does ONTEX’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of ONTEX? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the EBR every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
