Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ:MNST)

Key Insights

• Monster Beverage's estimated fair value is US$63.92 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Monster Beverage's US$59.50 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate

• Our fair value estimate is similar to Monster Beverage's analyst price target of US$63.90

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ:MNST) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Monster Beverage

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$1.73b	US$2.08b	US$2.20b	US$2.36b	US$2.55b	US$2.69b	US$2.81b	US$2.91b	US$3.01b	US$3.10b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x8	Analyst x7	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 5.40%	Est @ 4.47%	Est @ 3.81%	Est @ 3.36%	Est @ 3.04%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%	US$1.6k	US$1.9k	US$1.9k	US$1.9k	US$1.9k	US$1.9k	US$1.9k	US$1.8k	US$1.8k	US$1.7k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$18b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.1b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.0%– 2.3%) = US$86b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$86b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)¹⁰= US$48b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$67b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$59.5, the company appears about fair value at a 6.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Monster Beverage as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Monster Beverage

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Currently debt free.

Weakness

• No major weaknesses identified for MNST.

Opportunity

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.

• Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Monster Beverage, we've put together three further items you should further examine:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Monster Beverage you should know about.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for MNST's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.