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Cash Converters International Limited (ASX:CCV) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 27% in the last month. But that is little comfort to those holding over the last half decade, sitting on a big loss. Indeed, the share price is down 63% in the period. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. But it could be that the fall was overdone.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Cash Converters International has made a profit in the past. However, it made a loss in the last twelve months, suggesting profit may be an unreliable metric at this stage. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
The revenue fall of 0.5% per year for five years is neither good nor terrible. But if the market expected durable top line growth, then that could explain the share price weakness.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Cash Converters International will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Cash Converters International's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Cash Converters International's TSR of was a loss of 60% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 3.5% in the twelve months, Cash Converters International shareholders did even worse, losing 9.5%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 10% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Cash Converters International .
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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